So the Lok Sabha 2014 elections are at hand and there seems to be a different kind of buzz this time around. Various factors are at play: anger against UPA, a polarizing figure like Modi in the PM race and the entrance of AAP. This blog is just a quick take on my predictions and expectations from these elections. Just for fun!
I am no political expert and have only started following Indian politics after the IAC movement and the formation of AAP. My judgements are based on opinion polls, social media trends and my gut feeling. Obviously when political analysts and opinion polls have gone completely wrong in their predictions, it is not possible for my judgement to carry any weight at all. But here is what I feel will happen:
NDA – 220 (BJP around 185-190)
UPA – 120
AAP – 30
Others – 170
Numbers are not meant to add up exactly (just approximate)
As I am an AAP supporter I would honestly hope they prove me wrong with more seats but as of now, here is how I feel they will get their seats (UDPATE at the very end):
Delhi – 5
Maharashtra – 5
Punjab – 3
Haryana – 2
UP – 5
Karnataka – 2
Other states + surprises – 10-12
I believe there will be at least 10 surprises because some constituencies have a lot of AAP volunteers working very hard and could end up getting the kind of support needed to win those seats. Especially in states like Rajasthan, Himachal etc.
While I would like AAP to reach this target of 30, I believe its still a challenge. They might fall short but then again they might surprise us too. Its hard to predict.
Obviously whats stopping AAP from reaching higher numbers is lack of funds and organizational strength but I believe that even 30 seats will be a huge achievement (especially if they defeat a couple of heavyweights like Kapil Sibal, Nitin Gadkari, VK Singh and even Rahul Gandhi). 30 will be more than enough to stay as a pressure group in parliament and at the same time consolidate the party structures to fight upcoming assembly elections. Its only after they form a government in Delhi or Haryana that we will see their governance again and be able to judge. If they do well then they will spread quite rapidly. If not, well I don’t want to consider that right now….they are the only hope!
One very important factor that’s going to come into play is that Delhi elections are rather early in the polling. Once the Delhi elections are over by 10th April, Arvind along with a huge number of volunteers and other prominent faces will be able to campaign in other states. AAP has its largest volunteer base in Delhi and they will surely spread across UP, Punjab etc after the Delhi elections. This will help and propel many AAP candidates who have been fighting a lone battle so far.
There is also the interesting battle in Varanasi. I am sure even Arvind does not think that it will be easy to put up a fight there but he is not really fighting to become an MP. The battle in many ways is symbolic but if he can win or even put up a strong fight, there will be a huge effect of that in the coming years.
So with 230 seats we can expect BJP to form the next government with a number of coalitions unless they implode internally. Other than Modi there are definitely a few others in BJP who are eyeing the PM position and if Modi cannot cross the 230-240 mark, then questions will be raised on the so called Modi wave.
So let the elections begin. If you are reading this and will be voting – Vote for AAP 😉
My prediction for UP and Maharashtra are probably on the higher side and AAP will not get those 5 seats. Having said that, they are expected to get a great vote share in Maharashtra (especially Mumbai). Hoping that they win a couple there and also in UP. Punjab on the other hand seems to be embracing AAP big time. If this last phase of campaigning and voting day goes well, we could see AAP getting up to 5 seats in Punjab, which will be amazing.
The battles in Amethi and Varanasi are heating up. I have full expectations for Kumar Vishwas’s win in Amethi. Varanasi will be difficult but as I have mentioned before, Arvind does not take the easy route.